If Success is a Coin Toss, Improve Your Odds By Selecting the Right Coin

We all hear so much about failure. Lots of blog posts, podcasts, etc. Entrepreneurship means there will be failures but I think that most of us, given a choice, would prefer to at least not fail too often. However, some of what I’ve read suggests in various vague ways that you need to first fail to be successful. You must fail first? It’s a requirement? Offer that deal to a test pilot.

It’s not that you must fail at first but rather that the odds are greater at first (see the “last quick point” at the end of this post).

I’ve also heard it implied that failure is some sort of “badge of honor.” News flash: it isn’t. Failure is going to happen and it is not fun. Fighting through failure to eventually succeed does show courage but not doing everything you can within reason to avoid failure is just stupid.

Failure is going to happen and you don’t know when it’ll happen. You can’t avoid the risk. OK, that’s reality. Wouldn’t it make sense then to do everything you can to minimize the probability while still making progress at light speed?

Imagine that the odds of success for everything you try are determined by a coin flip. You, however, get to pick the coin from a very large bag of coins. In the bag are all kinds of coins with strange markings, shapes (square, round, hexagon, etc.), thick, thin, uneven, etc. Every time you try something you pick a coin and flip it.

These coins aren’t like what you’re used to. They are specific to different classes of tasks or even to specific tasks. Ever heard the saying “the right tool for the job?” Well, the same goes for the coins. If you pick the right coin then your odds of success aren’t too bad. The further off you are from selecting the correct coin the lower the odds are of success. Just pick a random coin and you’re almost sure to fail.

How close to the “correct” coin do you need to get? Depends on the consequences of failure. The consequences of blowing up a small prototype device aren’t quite the same as the consequences of blowing up your house. Does failure mean losing $1000 in equipment or your life savings? The more substantial the consequences the closer to the “correct” coin you need to get.

Side note: if you can’t risk a certain outcome then you need to eliminate the outcome. Sometimes you can do this and sometimes you can’t. If you can’t risk blowing up your house then move your testing to a remote location where something going boom won’t matter. Where do you think they test rocket engines?

Can you actually ever pick the “correct” coin? You can narrow it down with information but can you gather all the necessary information to even know which is the “correct” coin? Doubtful. It’d take too long. You want to move at light speed, remember? Even if you did select the “best” coin there’s obviously still a chance of failure. In the end it’s still a coin toss.

This is the trade-off: speed vs improving the odds. You cannot eliminate the very real possibility of failure no matter how much you analyze, test, measure, think, refine, revise, test again, ponder, etc. Gather what data you can, know your risks and be prepared to accept the outcomes, pick your best coin, and give it a good flip. You may succeed and you may fail. It’s better than not trying at all — that guarantees failure.

One last quick point. A golden source of information is what you learn when you give something a try and it doesn’t work as expected. Failure is rarely 100% bad. Analyzing what didn’t work tells you some of what to change. Not all, but some. The added information improves your odds because you’ll pick a better coin next time.